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Avs Mailbag: Season predictions, Matt Duchene at center, defensemen update and more

Denver Post sports writer Mike Chambers posts the Avs Mailbag every other Tuesday during the regular season.

Pose an Avalanche- or NHL-related question for the Avs Mailbag.

Hey Mike, do you think the Avs need another winger to put Matt Duchene back at center?
— Shaun, Rochester, New York

As you know by now, Shaun, Duchene is back at center. That was the plan all along with Mikko Rantanen, the prized rookie. He’s the right winger that puts Duchene back in the middle. Thanks for your question.

What would you say is the expectation for this team? How do you see the season shaking out?
— Kurt, Durango

The Penguins were playing poorly midway last season and made a coaching change, then won the Stanley Cup. The Avalanche’s coaching change is positive. The players are good enough to play in the playoffs. New coach Jared Bednar gives this team a chance to advance to the postseason, and from there, you never know what can happen.

Early in the season, the defense looks similar to last season being slow, not physical enough and lazy in its attempts to get the puck out of the zone. Any thoughts on when Chris Bigras and Anton Lindholm might be brought back up and do we have any defensemen in San Antonio (or in the system) that could supplant a player or two on the back end and help our defense?
— Sean, Denver

The Avs defense might look the same but the team isn’t getting outshot every game. That’s positive. There are fewer D-to-D passes and more pushing the puck up ice. That’s positive. Only great teams with elite defensemen can set up the rush by “playing catch” in their own end.

Now that the entire organization has embraced analytics and a puck possession system, does this effect how the Post will cover the team in the upcoming season. Do you and Terry have to learn all the stats and their relevance to the game?
— Andrew Winderemere, Denver

Interesting question, Andrew. Thank you. Terry and I would both tell you we’re old-schooled. We see shots for/against, scoring chances, defensive-end turnovers etc., and form an opinion of the team. I realize the game has changed with scientific studies and the media has a responsibility to embrace that change. It’s certainly something we will address.

Why haven’t the Avs made the obvious move every fan has wondered the past few years and moved Tyson Barrie to forward? He clearly has the speed and scoring touch to be an offensive contributor while at the same time his lack of size and physicality makes him a liability on defense.
— Rob Duwa, Iowa City, Iowa

I’ll use my son for an example on this, Rob. He’s a defenseman, and a natural at that because he’s pretty good in the D-zone and feels lost playing forward. He likes to play with the game in front of him. That’s his comfort zone. He’s a reactionary player, meaning his likes to adapt to what unfolds instead of making it unfold. He’d rather make the stretch pass than score on a breakaway. Tyson Barrie’s comfort zone is to play with the game in front of him. He’s an excellent offensive player who likes to jump into the play but not get it going down low.

Mike, having seen almost every game over the past two years I came to the conclusion, like many, that our depth on defense was the main culprit for many of the Avs’ disappointing demises. Now that the deadweight is gone (Holden, Redmond) how do you think the non-top four defense will perform this year?
— Eric A., Larkspur

The defense hasn’t changed that much. Patrick Wiercioch and Fedor Tyutin have replaced Holden and Redmond. Wiercioch and Tyutin were castoffs by their former teams. But none of those four players are bad NHL D. I agree that the Avs have not done enough in free agency and trades to improve their defense but I think the new coach’s systems will help the current blue line.

Mike, I saw in your prediction that you don’t think the Wild are going to make the playoffs. What is your reasoning? It is hard to count out Bruce B. behind the bench of a decent squad.
— Mike O., Waukesha, Wisconsin

I didn’t put the Wild in the top eight because I think Colorado will make the playoffs and the Western Conference is so darn tough. I had to eliminate one team and that was Minnesota.

With the upcoming expansion draft, I believe the goaltending position is the most intriguing. What is your prediction?
— Jeff Michener, Beamsville, Ontario, Canada

Well, good chance Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury isn’t protected because of youngster Matt Murray and there’s a chance the Avs protect Calvin Pickard instead of Semyon Varlamov — the latter because that might be the only way to get out of Varlamov’s $5.9 million cap hit through 2018-19. There are a handful of other examples throughout the league.

It seems like both Semyon Varlamov and Calvin Pickard are splitting playing time so far this year. Do the Avs have a true number one between the pipes?
— Jeff, Aurora

Yes, it’s Varlamov. But that could change. It’s competitive.

Denver Post sports writer Mike Chambers posts the Avs Mailbag every other Tuesday during the regular season.

Pose an Avalanche- or NHL-related question for the Avs Mailbag.

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